December 3, 2007
Hijole chicken, those numbers! - Updated: Ft Lee Growth Management Plan, now available
Tonight a rep of RKG Associates (the folks who’ve spent the better part of a year forecasting how the BRAC-related growth at Ft. Lee will shake out across Petersburg, Prince George, Dinwiddie, Chesterfield, Colonial Heights, and Hopewell) presented their findings to a packed audience of leaders and citizens from around the region.
The PowerPoint presentation will be available tomorrow, Tuesday (I’ll note when it’s available by adding “Updated” to the title of this thread). Meanwhile, a few general points to the extent memory serves me well:
* Chesterfield, buckle your seatbelt — C’field is expected to experience monster growth over the next five years (an increase of 50,000 people or some such huge number), of which Ft. Lee personnel (civilian and military) will be but a small part
* Most of the jurisdictions above will observe a shortage of capacity in their elementary and high schools. Exception: Petersburg is expected to observe surplus capacity in their schools (which the RKG rep said is a problem of a different kind, as that suggests certain inefficiencies assuming no closures)
* While the presentation contains numbers in relation to education, child care, housing, and several other basic impact areas, the transportation simulations are currently underway and hence are forthcoming
Re: ‘hijole chicken’ - there’s a story there, but suffice it to say the phrase is another way of saying ‘wow’ that I use in response to things worthy, such as the numbers presented in the Growth Management Plan.
The Growth Management Plan is now available, here [5.10MB pdf, not ppt].
Comments re: the slides…
* slide 14, with the concentric circles around Ft Lee — per the discussion last night, the colored blobs represent approved new developments in the region. I’m guessing the color coding pertains not to size of development, but to jurisdiction… not 100% sure, as that detail was not mentioned… anyway, note the loads of blobs/developments along the I-95 corridor in C’field. (Hm. That south of Richmond commute is going to get thornier…)
Population Growth (# new people), b/t now and 2013 — NOTE — BELOW I DO NOT MERELY REPRODUCE THE NUMBERS
* Chesterfield
- 51000, natural growth
- 2200, Ft. Lee’s direct impact
- 800, Ft. Lee’s indirect impact
= about 54000 new folks coming to town
(In view of current water shortages, I sure hope C’field isn’t planning on getting all its water from Lake Chesdin…)
* Prince George
- 5500, natural growth
- 850, Ft. Lee direct impact
- 800, Ft. Lee indirect impact
= about 7000 new folks coming to town
…. (skipping ahead to Dinwiddie and Petersburg)….
Note that there are TWO sets of projections for Dinwiddie, Petersburg, and Col. Heights. If I recall correctly from the discussion, the first set assumes that the future increase in population across these regions will match the current distribution of population across these areas. This set we were told assumes that the various locales have the ability/desire to achieve the infrastructure or other developments necessary to allow for those numbers — the RKG rep noted that this is unlikely to be the case. Hence, RKG ran a 2nd set of projections taking such constraints into account. It seemed from the presentation that the 2nd set of projections are considered to be more likely by RKG. I reproduce both sets of figures below:
* Dinwiddie (shifting share method)
- 3200, natural growth
- 350, Ft. Lee direct impact
- 75, Ft. Lee indirect impact
* Dinwiddie (proportional share method)
- 1450, natural growth
- 350, Ft. Lee direct impact
- 75, Ft. Lee indirect impact
* Petersburg (shifting share) — HOLY MOLY
- between now and 2013, 720 new people are expected to move to town due to natural growth. Full stop. No Ft. Lee impact, direct or otherwise.
- also note that in contrast to all other jurisdictions, the projections forecast population DECLINE for years 2007-2010.
* Petersburg (proportional share method)
- 3200, natural growth
- 620, Ft. Lee direct impact
WOW — if we look at the shifting share figures, it appears Dinwiddie is working to benefit from the region’s growth more than proportionally (and the RKG rep noted as such). In contrast, Petersburg is expected to miss the Ft. Lee party, and to even observe a decline in population.
The reason for these two troubling findings where Petersburg is concerned may relate in part to the state of Petersburg’s schools; if you turn to the education part of the presentation, while most jurisdictions are expected to have shortage capactiy, Petersburg is expected to have surplus capacity — and yet people aren’t expected to move here. Well, this is not a surprise.
I will note the folks that I’ve talked to since last night are of the opinion that the 2nd set of projections may take some current constraints into account, but we wonder if they capture the increasing draw of Petersburg’s historic architecture, or the impact that our new Police Chief and Superintendent are expected to have in turning the community around. Further, if most Ft. Lee salaries will support new houses in the $200K-$300K range, to my understanding Petersburg is developing same behind Walmart, whereas $200K in C’field is a bit harder to find (but then, I’m sure the number crunchers have taken this into account). Anyway, the gut feeling of some locals is that this 2nd set of figures may be a worst-case scenario, not a most-likely scenario. But we’d be wise to heed the message that if we want to be at the party, we as a city must change our priorities and our conversations.
Hm… I wonder if the GMP takes into account the recent announcement that Rolls-Royce is coming to the area? That’s pretty recent news, so maybe not…
Not a big deal, IMO.
Petersburg’s population has been falling for years (as has richmond’s, BTW)
Petersburg could raise their popluation themselves in a year if they approved every group home that came along and built lots of new low income housing.
But who would say that petersburg (or richmond) was better five years ago? Prosperous families with school age children are NOT going to be moving to petersburg any time soon. They will eventually, but petersburg will be a different, more diverse place before that happens.
More good news:
* Independence Village, with all of its projected tax revenues, was approved
* The Algebra Project is coming to town
I whole heartedly agree with you Brenda when you say that we as a city must change our priorities and our conversations. I was not at the train station because of prior commitment, however it was told to me that a city official, in defense of the sad outlook for Petersburg, stated that the RKG rep did not have the information which would support all of the good things that we are doing in Petersburg. My point here is, why didn’t they have the information? They have, as reported here, spent the better part of a year preparing the forecast for BRAC and the potential for growth and expansion. Why don’t they know of the tough position we are taking on crime? Why didn’t they know that we have moved in a specific manner and direction in our school system? Why didn’t they know that we are just as valuable a community as our neighbors? Who in city hall is speaking loud and clear about the positive aspects of Petersburg? Who in the Economic Development Office is marketing this city like they really believe in what they are doing? Who at the Chamber of Commerce is putting out the fires of doubt and disillusionment? Who is responsible for letting the world know that we are here and we are open for business? WE ALL ARE!! Thank you Brenda, for your dedication and commitment to sharing information. It took years to get us into this situation. It will take years to get us out. Be not dismayed. The results of our efforts today will be the shinning example for others tommorow. New soldiers coming to Fort Lee will not get bad news about Petersburg unless we give it to them, and I don’t think we will. We can talk about how it was, but glow in what it is now what it is becoming. We are attractive, no matter what the RKG or anyone else says. It is nearly impossible to decline when we are sitting in the center of such potential for prosperity unless we choose not to pick up tools and build. Our faith in family, friends and neighbors will be enough to carry us into the future. There will be shortages and shortcomings, mistakes and mishaps, but we shall prevail as a living, breathing community of arts and cultural buffs, business and education leaders, youth adults and seniors all working together to overcome and recover from the ravages of a time in history when we were all but counted out. Sounds like a good story? Let’s all help write a happy next chapter.
That $4 million Golf Course looks kind of stupid now. Let think about where that money could have been spent. I guess time will tell if this is used as a wake up call or just another legendary missed opportunity that will be talked about by the old timers. Rolls-Royce? Do any of you smell Nippon Wiper Blades or Ingram Books? Cleaning up the hotels around 95 so that people aren’t skeptical about leaving the highway would probably create more jobs.
Every time I pass the large Frank Lloyd Wright looking hotel at 95 and Washington,I wonder how it ended up being closed down. How can any hotel/motel on 95 not make money?
I wish someone would come and clean it up and get it in operation. Any improvements in town add to the tax base and that’s a good thing. But it’s ONLY a good thing if the city spends the money wisely.
Great observation about the closing down of a potential money making hotel/motel on 95/Washington St. Let’s get to the bottom of this. Let’s get an answer to your question. Now, who would we ask how it ended up being closed down, city manager? asst. city manager? mayor? ward council rep? eco dev office? All of the above? In addition to wishing that someone would clean it up, let’s find out who is responsible for cleaning it up. Would that be the property owner? Who owns that property anyway. I better check the assessors office. Getting it in operation is going to take an investor or investors, who possibly could that be. Does the eco dev office have any prospects? How about the chamber of commerce? Can they play a role in this? Are they already doing something about it? Let’s call these people and ask some pertinent questions. We can compare our responses right here at PPN. First one to come up with the answers will get a __________ (fill in the blank)
Not to distract attention from discussion about a particular building that could be of potential import, but I keep hearing comments that the city keeps declining to sell some of its property when bids come in. Just heard same again this past weekend. Since I’ve now heard this at least half a dozen times, it raises the question of why the city is not selling its empty property to folks that would put the property to use and offer our community more commercial/retail/office/etc. space. Is the city trading off near- term potential tax revenue on such porperty against potentially higher selling price in the future? If so, is this what a city should be doing? (I don’t know; I just know that these questions have recently come to mind.)
Yes, and here again, I ask that we channel those questions to the city representative responsible for knowing the answers. How can these kind of question be a part of the efficiency review? Perhaps they are. Where is the city’s official statement loud and clear to the public that we are going to be included in the progressive development as it relates to the consequential growth via the BRAC initiatives? This isn’t rocket science or algebra, just some simple transparent communication from city officials.
“Where is the cityís official statement loud and clear…?”
I could not agree more!!!!
On the subject, I wrote some of our leadership the following back in July:
Sadly, no communication, digital or otherwise, is yet provided.
When I attended the council meetings this past spring that focused on the city and school budgets, the Mayor or City Manager (don’t recall which) suggested that it was important that the community provide our leadership direction re: how we want the city’s limited funds to be allocated. But how can the city expect to receive input if the community has no idea what priorities are or are not under consideration? Further, the city does itself no benefit by leaving its citizens to wonder at what it may or may not be doing to promote the city, to address road repair, to address blight, etc., as the lack of information can lead one to think that nothing is being done and in turn to unnecessary teeth-gnashing.
I think a periodic communication of some sort is a necessary first step to the city and the community working as partners toward common objectives.
An excerpt from a post on the above themes over at Petersburg Vibe:
Add to the list: the Phoenix Project.
First off, if anyone has any evidence that the city owns a hotel, will they post the assessors link instead of an insinuation?
Second, believe it or not, the city does not engage in real estate speculation. They often buy up property to control its use, only to sell it at a loss some time later when it is deemed in the city’s interest.
I do not doubt there has been some subjectivity in this and that good proposals were turned down. Happens. But there is plenty of space on the market, if anyone hasn’t noticed.
That RE over there is of special interest to me. Not that I could afford it. Now that I know others besides myselves and a few asians have taken an interest in the area, I can assure you that others have too.
As everyone knows, that has been a problem area for the city. I’m sure some people in the city would rather shut down most of those “hotels” rather than have them house the people they often do. If petersburg owns a hotel, it may be holding on to it not to get a better price, but so that it can be held as part of a larger parcel, as the WHOLE AREA needs to be redeveloped. Anything can go over there. The city would be smart not to comment about the issue, as speculators could further drive up land prices over there, possibly killing future deals.
Keeping THOSE hotels hotels might not be the best idea, as anyone who uses American Family Fitness or as been to the DMV building lately can tell you, the area ain’t gonna be starvin’ for hotel space.
Thanks Shawn! Now,can you participate in helping to develop the relationship between Petersburg and Fort Lee to be one that positions the city to be productive as opposed to the dismal projections given us by the RKG Associates? Perhaps you are already working in some capacity to help in this regard, if so, please accept my apology as I don’t want to overburden anyone. However, your leadership persona jumps out at me, and your city needs you.
Shawn, I believe you read too much into the above. What I see are are questions, not insinuations, with the aim of hoping to learn from those better informed about same. No one person has the time to research all their own questions, and further, it would be inefficient for 400 people to separately research questions that they may share among themselves. Personally, I think it is great that folks can bang out questions as they come to mind, scurry off to attend to their responsibilities, and maybe later in the day/week/month find that some individual has taken the time and trouble to provide a response. BTW, each of the questions posed above has come up in various conversations over time, so they are clearly on folks’ minds. So questions are being raised. When someone has the time or inclination to nail down the answers, I’m sure those persons will share same with us. Anyway, thanks for providing your perspective.
BTW, on the subject of city property, I offer a suppportive point of view on this thread on 8 W. Old St.
atkinsmith,
I am no leader, but rather an advisor.
I suspect you are more the leader.
The leaders that will help with fort lee are: Axis, Monroe Properties, Dave Mccormick, and anyone who will facilitate downtown residential development. If people have high quality, low cost places to rent/buy close to fort lee, many will choose petersburg for its unique (for southside) downtown feel of oldtown or independence village. You aren’t gonna get many fort lee people to live in Gilfield. They’d rather rent an apartment closer in. Blandford has too many housing projects.
Brenda,
Before posting, I did try looking at the assessors records and without the address of the hotel in mind, it is quite time consuming to wade through all of the city-owned property, unfortunately.
Those hotels on the east of 95 are an open sore which opportunistic parasites enter this city.
Sure we get lowlifes here by their having some prior connection to the city, but the concentration of cheap hotels with weekly and monthly rates is a magnet for folks who are on the run from the law in north carolina or NJ who are just looking for a cheap place to stay. Then, when they find out how overwhelmed our law enforcement is, they tend to take up more permanent residence here. Anyone redeveloping ONE building over there will find it hard to cope with all the other problem RE over there. It really needs to be done in one master project.
Richmond Free Press covers the RKG findings in the current (Jan 3-4 2008) issue (scroll down to page 4 or so).
Hat-tip to John M for the find.